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Pre-Mortem

Before starting a project, assume it has failed and work backward to identify what went wrong, surfacing risks that optimistic planning overlooks.

In Depth

The pre-mortem is one of the few practical debiasing strategies Kahneman recommends. Instead of asking 'What could go wrong?' (which triggers defensive optimism), assume failure has occurred and ask 'What did go wrong?' This reframing overcomes the planning fallacy and overconfidence by legitimizing skepticism and encouraging team members to voice concerns. The technique works by shifting from inside view (our specific plan) to outside view (what typically goes wrong in similar projects).

Example

Before launching a product, a team assumes it failed spectacularly and generates reasons: 'The market wasn't ready,' 'Competitors copied us faster,' 'Manufacturing costs exceeded projections.' This surfaces risks that optimistic planning would have missed.

Common Misconception

Asking 'What could go wrong?' is sufficient—the pre-mortem's power comes from assuming failure, which overcomes defensive optimism and legitimizes skepticism.

Source

Thinking, Fast and Slow

Daniel Kahneman

decision-makingproject managementrisk assessment

Related Concepts

builds on

Planning Fallacy

Systematic tendency to underestimate how long tasks will take and what can go wrong, despite past experience with similar projects.