High confidence in predictions based on coherent stories, even when predictive validity is low or zero.
When we can construct a coherent narrative connecting evidence to conclusion, we feel confident in our judgment—even when the evidence has no predictive power. Kahneman's research on Israeli military officers showed their assessments of recruit potential had near-zero validity, but they remained confident because they could tell coherent stories about each recruit. The illusion of validity is strongest when the evidence fits together into a compelling narrative, regardless of its actual diagnostic value.
A hiring manager feels confident about a candidate because their background 'tells a coherent story' of success, even though research shows interviews have low predictive validity for job performance.
Confidence reflects accuracy—confidence often reflects narrative coherence and is poorly calibrated to predictive validity, especially in low-validity environments.
In Kahneman's research on Israeli military officers, why did they remain confident in their assessments of recruits despite near-zero predictive validity?
How does the illusion of validity relate to the narrative fallacy?
Logically equivalent choices produce different decisions when framed differently (as gains vs. losses, or with different reference points).
PrincipleContinuing an endeavor because of previously invested resources (time, money, effort) that cannot be recovered, even when continuing is irrational.
PrincipleFast, automatic, unconscious cognitive processing that operates through pattern recognition and associative memory without deliberate effort.
Mental ModelSlow, effortful, conscious cognitive processing required for complex calculations, unfamiliar tasks, and deliberate reasoning.
Mental ModelThe tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the anchor) when making decisions, even when it's arbitrary or irrelevant.
PrincipleJudging the frequency or probability of events by how easily examples come to mind, leading to overestimation of vivid, recent, or emotional events.
PrincipleJudging probability by similarity to stereotypes or prototypes, while ignoring base rates and sample size.
PrincipleWhen faced with a difficult question, System 1 automatically substitutes an easier question without conscious awareness of the switch.
FrameworkHigh confidence in predictions based on coherent stories, even when predictive validity is low or zero.
A hiring manager feels confident about a candidate because their background 'tells a coherent story' of success, even though research shows interviews have low predictive validity for job performance.
Confidence reflects accuracy—confidence often reflects narrative coherence and is poorly calibrated to predictive validity, especially in low-validity environments.
Illusion of Validity is explored in depth in "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman. Distilo provides a deep AI-powered analysis with key insights, audio narration, and practical frameworks.